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I Was Right
Err Travel · May 1, 2001

Last January I took a stab at how crime and travel would intersect during the year. Now, a year later, I'm returning to those predictions to see how I did. Here are the predictions and how they stacked up against events of the year.

Reported crime
Last year I took the not-so-very-bold step to predict, "crime in cities around the world will increase, will decrease, or will remain about the same." My timidity paid off. I was right on the money. Not a very daring prediction, but so far I'm batting a thousand.

Criminals
Next, I predicted that "criminals will exploit new security measures for their own benefit." Based on anecdotal information, I came pretty close here too. For instance, I reported on how upgraded locks on hotel guestrooms have required thieves to come up with some clever new tactics.

Terrorism
I guessed that terrorists would turn their attention toward private businesses and that "terrorism will continue to capture headlines." Western businesses seem to have dodged the bullets, but the attack on the USS Cole is evidence that terrorists are still capturing headlines.

Kidnapping for ransom
I wrote that kidnapping for ransom was "already a booming business in Columbia and Mexico," and I predicted that it would "spread to heretofore 'safe' destinations across South America." I missed this one in that I didn't expand it enough to cover, for instance, the dozen tourists on a scuba diving trip taken hostage in Philippines.

Air rage
I posited that "air rage will be a persistent, if not a growing problem." Bingo! Three of the most noteworthy incidents of air rage occurred over the past year. Jonathan Burton was killed by fellow passengers who subdued him on a flight into Salt Lake City. Peter Bradley, suffering from a case of viral encephalitis (yeah, encephalitis) broke into an Alaska Airlines flight from Mexico en route to San Francisco. And just a couple of weeks ago, Paul Lusamamba Matsuru Mukonyi, a supposed-paranoid Kenya-bound passenger almost brought down a British Airways 747 after entering its cockpit.

Attorneys
Finally, I suggested that lawyers "will find that there is lots of money to be made in crime [and] will make their dough by suing … transportation and hospitality enterprises. And there will be plenty of hapless victims who will look to blame all those except the ones most responsible for their victimizations: themselves."

Well, there was dough to be made (see, for example, the $5.2 million award made against Alamo Rent-A-Car), and there were hapless victims looking for somebody other than themselves to hold responsible for their losses (for instance, the couple who saw $13,000 in jewelry go missing from their New York City hotel room).

So to answer the question of how I did at predicting travel related crimes last year, I give myself an A-. And I bet that I would score about the same for this year by simple re-running last year's predictions.

Crime is just so darn predictable.

Dr. Terry Riley is a psychologist and travel security authority. He is author of the popular book Travel Can Be Murder. Visit his site at http://www.appliedpsychology.com or e-mail him at terry@ticked.com.