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Same Old, Same Old
Err Travel · March 28, 2000

Predictions are like bellybuttons: everybody's got one. Except experts. We've got an abundance - of predictions, that is.

We "experts" are often more productive in pumping out forecasts than helping to understand past events. And I'm no exception. Here's my stab at how crime and travel will intersect this year.

(I should note that I did get some help with my predictions - at four bucks a minute - from Dionne Warwick and her Psychic Friends Network (1-900-420-2330). I also picked up some online vibes from the likes of PsychicSite and Psychic Pro.

Reported crime in cities around the world will increase, will decrease, or will remain about the same. (I figured I'd begin with an easy one.) The thing is, it won't make any difference in the behavior of those traveling. Travelers who have been exercising caution while on the road will continue to do so. Those who have been less careful will continue to behave in that same way - with one exception: Once-careless travelers who have been victimized tend to get religion and become among the most cautious.

Criminals will exploit new security measures for their own benefit. Just as clever criminals have learned to use, for instance, airport passenger screening and hotel room safes to their advantage, they will learn to use yet-to-be-introduced security measures to commit yet-to-be-labeled crimes.

Terrorism will continue to capture headlines. As governments tighten security around their facilities, terrorists, always seeking paths of least resistance, will get those headlines by targeting private companies, particularly those which represent Western culture. Following media hype rather than rational thinking, many travelers will think of personal danger primarily in terms of terrorist attack. Unfortunately, they will be fretting over very low probability events rather than paying attention to more common crimes that can be just as devastating but are much more within their ability to prevent.

Kidnapping for ransom, already a booming business in Colombia and Mexico, will spread to heretofore "safe" destinations across South America.

Air rage will be a persistent, if not a growing problem. More travelers with more money and attitudes to accompany their self-importance, will put more "emotional pressure" on a transportation system which is already squeezed. Occasionally this pressure will erupt in dangerous behavior. So far the only solution to the systemic problem of pressure-cooked passengers has been the application of Band-Aids to the parties who get burned. This approach among most airlines is unlikely to change soon.

Attorneys, like criminals (some may find the distinction fuzzy) will find that there is lots of money to be made in crime. Unlike criminals though, lawyers will make their dough following criminal incidents by suing tour operators, travel agencies, airlines, airports, railroads, bus companies, hotels and motels, taxicab businesses, other transportation and hospitality enterprises, and even the companies who send their employees on business. And there will be plenty of hapless victims who will look to blame all those except the ones most responsible for their victimizations: themselves. All in all, the first year of the century will be much like the ones preceding it, only more so.

Next week I'll narrow in on destinations that I believe have the potential to be more dangerous than in previous years.

Dr. Terry Riley is a psychologist and travel security authority. His column appears on Wednesdays. He is author of the popular book Travel Can Be Murder. Visit his site at http://www.appliedpsychology.com or e-mail him at terry@ticked.com.